False Hopes

Media Post reports today that “newspapers’ decline will slow and maybe even stop in 2007,” based upon advertising buying intentions. These kinds of reports may give false hope to the newspaper industry, which has no future. The fact that advertisers say they won’t cut back on newspaper advertising has no bearing on their actual behavior. Try to convince a car dealer that the $10,000 he spends on advertising every week is money well-invested when he’s got countless alternatives that are free. Intentions have nothing to do with reality in a market like this and the reality is that advertisers are deserting newspapers in droves and will continue to do so. Make a note to check back on these predictions in a year to see how woefully wrong they were.

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