Cool & Useful Sites for the Holidays

Webby AwardsThe folks at the Webby Awards sent along a super-helpful list of Web resources to use over the holidays. They range from social shopping to gift recommendations to real-time TV and music sharing. While I was familiar with several of these sites, I hadn’t heard of gems like Yap.tv, Wantful and Trippy. Definitely bookmarkable. The descriptions below were provided by the Webby Awards.

1. Skype 

Video chatting is now a standard activity for most Internet users – in fact, earlier this year, Skype reported that their users log 300 million minutes of video calls daily. Skype has recently added a new multi-party platform that allows up to 10 people to video chat with each other, which is a great way to get the family together, even if you’re all far away from each other.

2. Google+ Hangouts

Yet another way to connect groups of people over video chat – but Hangouts also enable the chat participants to share and enjoy digital content like YouTube videos in real time.

3. Crackle

Sony has brought together two of its popular platforms by creating virtual movie theaters on Playstation 3 that stream content from Crackle – and it’s planning to add more digital hangouts later this year.

4. Turntable.fm

Turntable.fm brings together the social experience of the Web and music. Users can create or join listening rooms for friends – or strangers – and DJ their favorite songs for each other.

5. YapTV

A great app that brings people together around their favorite TV shows – it shows every program on television at any moment and lets you socialize with other viewers. It pulls in tweets about the show and has a built-in chat functionality so you can talk while you watch. This is especially useful for every “Elf” re-run on TBS or if you’re sucked into another “A Christmas Story” 24-hour-marathon.

6. ShopWithYourFriends.com

Through sites like this, shopping online is no longer an isolated event. Shopping online is now social. These sites allow you converse with friends (through Skype and chat), compile lookbooks for your friends and family’s seal of approval, and most importantly, buy online.

7. SocialVest

SocialVest is an online retail platform that allows customers to buy and give at the same time. With SocialVest, you can make purchases at your favorite stores – like Target, Walmart, Bloomingdales, and more – and a percentage of all your purchases will go to a charity of your choice.

8. GiftaStranger.net

Make someone’s day brighter with this site that allows you to send a lucky person a gift of your choosing. All you need to submit is your first name, general location, and a picture of the gift you’re sending, and the site will generate a random address.

9. Wantful.com

The site suggests an array of thoughtful gifts based on information you provide about the recipient – everything from age and relationship status to how often the cook and their level of neatness.

10. HipMunk.com

With a well-designed, streamlined interface and smart use of filters, Hipmunk makes it easy to find the right flight or the best hotel. The site also has an app available for your phone or tablet device.

11. Trippy.com 

It makes it easy for you to get recommendations and tips for what to do (whether you are heading home for the holidays or on a dream vacation and have a nice picnic and bring your cooler from Survival Cooking List of Best Coolers) from your friends who already know you and your interests and needs, helping you travel better.

12. Amazon.com

Whether it’s a 6-hour flight home or over-the-river-and-through-the-woods, every trip is a little shorter with good book. Now, Amazon allows you to share your favorite books with your friends. Each loan lasts 14 days and are automatically returned to your library at the end.

The Social CIO: Texas Health Builds a Knowledge Engine

Last week I posted a rant about the failure of CIOs to take a leadership role in their company’s social media strategies. Having played the scold, I also want to recognize the efforts of CIOs who get it.

The Next Big ThingThis is one in a series of posts that explore people and technologies that are enabling small companies to innovate. The series is underwritten by IBM Midsize Business, but the content is entirely my own.

One of them is Ed Marx (below right), the CIO at Texas Health Resources, a system of 24 hospitals in North Texas that employs more than 21,500 people and serves 6.5 million customers. Over the last three years, Texas Health has grown its use of a behind-the-firewall social network to more than 3,500 employees (the organization can’t reveal the product’s name because of a non-endorsement policy).

To strive for and achieve excellence in all that we do through exceptional service, attaining outstanding levels of client service and satisfaction. Louis M. DeJoseph, MD‘s books are open and regularly close to new patients.

The employee-focused social network is changing the way the business operates. Its hospitals are spread across hundreds of miles, meaning that employees in one location rarely have a chance to meet their peers. Sharing best practices in an organization of that kind has traditionally been all but impossible, but Texas Health is pulling its resources together with often remarkable results. On other health related news, checkout this article about top rated wholesale e cig company. This E-cigars are the best alternatives to quit smoking.

Ed Marx, Texas Health ResourcesNearly every kind of health care professional at the organization is participating. For example:

  • As electronic health records (EHR) are adopted throughout the system, physicians set up a forum to help each other champion the new technology. Acceptance by MDs is crucial to the success of EHR, and Texas Health’s rank among the top 5% of all hospital systems in EHR adoption is due in no small part to the speed with which employees have shared their successes.
  • A group has formed to design local TEDx events. These independently organized conferences are intended to carry the spirit of innovation and collaboration that characterizes the popular TED conference to the local level. The first event was a sellout.
  • When the H1N1 flu pandemic broke out two years ago, hospital presidents at first didn’t know what to make of it. Many went to the network to ask if their colleagues were seeing a surge in flu-related admissions. Rapid communication helped Texas Health become one of the first hospital networks to identify the outbreak of the virus and move to protect members.
  • More than 160 groups have formed around everything from children with disabilities to sports to prayer. People are forming relationships with others in the organization whom they never would have otherwise met, and that’s creating ideas that make the business better.

The social network “has became our primary form of communication,” Marx said. “I stopped all e-mail to my staff.” But the network is more than an e-mail replacement. The ability for employees to find expertise at facilities hundreds of miles from their own has improved institutional knowledge and sped up the pace of business.

Relinquishing Control                                          

One thing that distinguishes Ed Marx from a lot of other CIOs is that he isn’t addicted to control. When he arrived at Texas Health four years ago, most social networks and even Google’s Gmail were locked down. Marx unlocked them. The world of health care was about to begin its rapid march toward EHR, and there was no room for the technophobia that has long characterized the profession. “My attitude is to let people use their breaks to develop a Facebook account or check their Gmail so they can get used to how computers work,” Marx says.

The social network is spread through peer referrals without the benefit of a mandate from the IT organization. People use it because they see value. “When we mount a top-down push for adoption, I think we’re going to see growth shoot through the roof,” Marx says.

Giving up control doesn’t mean sacrificing security. Texas Health maintains all the firewalls, password controls and audit trails that its highly regulated business requires. The difference is that the IT organization manages by exception rather than by rule. “If the environment isn’t safe, we block it,” says Marx. But it turns out that social networks haven’t posed a security problem. Instead, they’ve spurred collaboration and raised morale. “We want engaged employees and you can’t have that when people see themselves as punching a clock,” Marx says.

Texas Health’s example illustrates how overblown many of the conventional concerns are about the perils of social networks. Security hasn’t been a problem in an organization whose industry imposes some of the world’s toughest regulations. Discussion groups have formed around topics that have nothing to do with healthcare, but that’s okay. By playing, people are learning skills that are paying dividends in other ways. Corporate transparency is humanizing executives and breaking down hierarchical barriers. People are learning to treat each other as people instead of titles, and that improves the quality of interaction.

For Ed Marx, openness to new ideas is a guiding principle. “If you want to expand your influence, you need to be open to other people’s ideas,” he says. “One is too small a number for greatness.”


Ed Marx’s Social Network Success Tips

Don’t mandate; elevate. IT organizations are rapidly losing the ability to tell people what devices and applications to use. Encourage people to use the tools they find valuable, find ways to accommodate them into your infrastructure and focus on security and data protection.

Use the tools yourself. One of the reasons the social network has succeeded at Texas Health is because the IT organization is one of its biggest boosters and most active users.

Enlist executive support. Once the people at the top of the organization climb on board, adoption spreads quickly. Find and encourage executive enthusiasts.

Promote success. Make it your business to be aware of people’s success stories and to share them broadly across the organization.

As Business Goes Social, CIOs Sit on Sidelines

CIOs scrutinize social mediaThe disconnect between CIOs and the emerging world of social business became clear to me at a conference I attended about two years ago. I entered the room late, but figured I could quickly catch up on the proceedings by checking the Twitter stream of attendees. With an estimated 300 senior IT executives in the room, I expected there would be plenty of chatter going on.

To my surprise, not a single tweet had been logged during the past hour. A technology that was revolutionizing the way business people communicate was being completely unused by the executives who manage technology in America’s largest corporations. As I began prodding my network of CIO contacts, I learned that this was not unusual.

Most CIOs are taking an attitude of, at best, benign neglect toward social networks. A large percentage of them are still actively blocking employee access to sites like Facebook and YouTube. The most recent research by Robert Half Technology found that 31% of U.S. companies block social networks completely and 51% limit access to business purposes only. While those numbers have improved from two years ago, they still indicate an entrenched suspicion that social networks are at best time-wasting extravagances and at worst latent security threats.

Same Old Song and Dance

These fears are legitimate, but we’ve heard them before. The argument that employees will waste time on new technology goes back to the introduction of the personal computer. CIOs also closed ranks against Internet-based e-mail and the Web itself in the early days of those technologies, citing fears that employees would use their new toy computers for games or would subvert the central control of the IT organization.

In fact, that’s exactly what they did. And given access to social networks at work, people will use them to play and waste time. CIOs should not only accept this fact but embrace it.

Anyone who has children knows that playing is one of the most effective learning techniques humans have. Experimentation unearths ideas that have practical applications. On the early Web, people “surfed.” In the process, they learned the skills that have redefined office productivity. Today, the people who can quickly find, organize and interpret information are among the most valuable in the workforce. Playing pays off.

In its formative years, social media has been largely relegated to marketing departments under the assumption that it’s just another form of communications. BtoB magazine asked 375 marketers last year who was primarily responsible for social media within their companies. Only one person identified the IT department. My anecdotal observations pretty much echo that. CIOs just don’t see social as part of their charter.

What a shame, because social technologies has about as much to do with marketing as enterprise resource planning (ERP) does with accounting. This is about the finding new ways of doing business with a customer base that’s empowered with information. It’s the very center of where business is going.

Demand-Driven Economics

How Companies WinIn their book, How Companies Win: Profiting from Demand-Driven Business Models, Rick Kash and David Calhoun argue that developed economies are in the process of transitioning from supply-constrained to demand-driven. We are awash in goods and services today, they point out, and prices are flat to declining in many markets. That means that there’s little incremental benefit to be had from making supply chains more efficient. In the future, value will come from generating demand that never existed, as the iPhone has done.

A decade ago, CIOs played a key role in implementing ERP and optimizing supply chains in many companies around the globe. While some of that was a byproduct of the Y2K problem, their willingness to lead such mission-critical projects was a feather in their cap.

Now the rules have changed and the new challenge is to drive demand. The information-empowered customer will impact every business at every level. We are in the first stages of the shift in market conditions from supplier push to customer pull. Understanding the dynamics of these new interactions and organizing businesses around them will be the major business challenge of the next five years.

Why would CIOs not want to be at the center of all that?


John Dodge agrees with me. Writing on the Enterprise CIO Forum, he suggests that one reason CIOs aren’t more active in social business is that they see themselves as analytical types, making their skills ill-suited to social interactions. That may be true, but I’d argue that analytical skills are sorely needed to help companies make sense of the cacophony of conversations going on around them and their markets. Social business isn’t just about engagement, but also about listening and understanding. CIOs have a lot to contribute by applying algorithmic discipline to that process.

Surveys Show ‘Social Business’ Concept Gaining Traction

A quartet of new research reports suggested that small and midsize businesses (SMB) are rapidly waking up to the potential of social media and cloud-based infrastructure to create new operational efficiencies and better engage customers – and that they may also be leading the US out of recession.

Fall 2011 Attitudes and Outlook Survey

A recent survey of more than 2,000 small businesses by e-mail marketing provider Constant Contact found that 81% say they now use social media for marketing, up from 73% in the spring. Furthermore, a significantly larger percentage agreed with the statement that social media marketing is “easy to use,” “doesn’t take up too much time,” and “works with my customers” than did so in the spring. Facebook was identified as the most effective tool by a comfortable margin, but Twitter, LinkedIn and video sharing are all creeping up.

It should be noted that the majority of respondents to the Constant Contact survey were customers, which means they are already marketing online. Other research studies over more general populations have indicated that small businesses still lag far behind large enterprises in their adoption of social media tools.

It’s also worth noting that 81 percent of respondents use face-to-face interactions to connect with customers or prospects, underlining the fact that Facebook has its limits.


A new global study of chief marketing officers (CMOs) at midsize businesses released today by IBM shows that marketers are concerned about improving customer engagement but are unclear about how to proceed. More than seven in 10 respondents said they aren’t sure how to improve customer loyalty at a time when peer reviews and open sharing are making customers more informed, more critical and less loyal. Only 40% are taking the time to understand and evaluate the impact of consumer-generated reviews,  blogs and peer rankings on their brands.

The CMO research further reveals that 62% say they are unprepared to take advantage of the opportunities presented by mobile commerce and 72% say they don’t know how to cope with declining levels of brand loyalty that could result from easier comparison shopping. So while midsize firms may be using social marketing, they aren’t necessarily confident in the results.


There is no question that the concept of “social business,” which is being promoted by IBM and others, is gaining traction. Social business involves using tools both inside and outside the organization to unearth knowledge, improve business responsiveness and create new paths for engagement with customers. The concept has gained momentum in the form of “intranet 2.0” platforms, which augment traditional intranets with Facebook-like features.

An IBM study of more than 4,000 Information Technology (IT) professionals from 93 countries and 25 industries found that adoption of the social business concept is erratic and geographically influenced. Indian companies were three times as likely to have embraced social business concepts as Russian companies. The US and China showed strong adoption rates, but both lag India by a significant margin. The research, which was conducted by IBM’s DeveloperWorks organization, also showed rapidly growing acceptance of cloud computing as a platform for application development and a swing toward developer preference for the Android mobile operating system.


If, as many people believe, small and midsize businesses are leading indicators of economic growth, then there’s also good news in survey of 1,295 small and medium business IT professionals conducted by Spiceworks. The study found that IT budgets grew 9% in the second half of 2011 compared to the first half. That’s the largest increase in two years. Nearly one third of SMBs said they are planning to hire new staff, which is also an improvement over the stagnant staffing rates of the past two years.

Disclosure: IBM’s Midsize Business organization is a client of Paul Gillin Communications.

The Wisdom of ‘We’

My column in BtoB magazine this month. Original here.

The manager of the Mansion on Peachtree hotel in Atlanta has it pretty good these days. The Mansion is the top-rated hotel in the city on TripAdvisor.com, with 163 reviews, nearly all of them five stars. The endorsement has enabled the Mansion to hold its premium prices and cut its acquisition costs. It’s also got the staff hopping to maintain the coveted top position.

“Social media is vital to our business today,” said Micarl Hill, the Mansion’s managing director. “But it also keeps us on our toes. People can tell everybody about a bad stay with the push of a button. What they say isn’t always fair, but we take it seriously.”

Recommendation engines like TripAdvisor, TravelPod, Google Places and Yelp are transforming the hospitality industry, and they’re coming to your town.

Mark Snider, owner of the Winnetu Oceanside Resort in Martha’s Vineyard, Mass., personally contacts every single customer who posts a complaint about his hotel on an online review site. Fortunately, it’s not a big job. Winnetu’s No. 1 rating on TripAdvisor drives so much business that Snider slashed his marketing budget this year.

If you think this trend is confined to consumer markets and small electronics, think again. Consider Spiceworks, a thriving community for IT professionals, where members have posted thousands of reviews of everything from computer servers to computer consultants. “When I’m looking at a vendor, I don’t Google it; I Spiceworks it,” wrote one forum member.

At Glassdoor.com, employees rate the companies they work for, review executive performances and swap salary information. How do you think the recruiting business will be changed by this?

And we’re still in the very early going. It’s only a matter of time before review sites pop up in every category of business, including B2B. Facebook and LinkedIn already make polling easy, and Quora is awash with questions about recommended vendors.

This is going to change the rules of marketing. People stopped listening to pitches some time ago, but they didn’t stop listening to each other. What you say about yourself now matters a lot less than what others say about you.

Marketers need to be tuned into these conversations 24/7, spot detractors and quickly try to turn them around. They also need to provide incentives for people to tell others about their positive experiences.

Start by discarding the “see no evil” mindset. Customers will share their opinions whether you want them to or not. You might as well be open about it. Southwest Airlines and Dell Computer encourage customers to lodge complaints on their company Facebook pages and address nearly every one. That’s called responsiveness, and it’s always been a good business practice. Today’s it’s life or death.

Economic Disruption: We’ve Seen This Before

Live-blogging from the IBM Watson University Symposium at Harvard Business School and MIT Sloan School of Management. Additional coverage is on the Smarter Planet Blog. .

Closing Remarks By Martin Fleming, IBM Chief Economist

Martin Fleming, Chief Economist, IBMIf we look at the global economy over the last 250 years, we’ve seen five waves of technology change:

  • Industrial Revolution
  • Age of Steam and Railways
  • Age of Steel, Electricity and Heavy Engineering
  • Age of Oil, Automobiles and Mass Production
  • Age of Information and Telecommunication
The Next Big ThingThis is one in a series of posts that explore people and technologies that are enabling small companies to innovate. The series is underwritten by IBM Midsize Business, but the content is entirely my own.

We’ve seen similar characteristics of each change. One is that we’ve gone through a stage where technology is applied to existing processes. Early factories were still vertically structured near bodies of water. It wasn’t for years that people restructured factories around the new machines.

I can remember when people were paid in envelopes of cash. Then we had payroll checks and now we manage our benefits via the Web. Technology enables us to change the way we do things.

Another example is that we have changed the way we consume media because of the iPhone and iPad, and this has altered fundamentally the media industry.

A third example is Watson in a health care context. This can allude to the democratization of health care, where the practice of health care is altered because of the technology. The whole concept of evidence-based medicine is an important new development.

Each of these five waves has been interceded by a crash in the financial markets. We’re beginning to understand this phenomenon.

When the global economy was declining in 2008, the decline in world trade and industrial production was actually steeper than in the 1930s. The decline didn’t last nearly as long (I would assert because of more assertive economic policy) but it was very steep.

The increase of public and private debt and the concentration of wealth in the financial sector also correlate to historical trends.

As we came to the end of the 1990s, we had opportunities that were typically high in ROI that were increasingly difficult to find. The financial sector had to look to new ways to deliver high returns to their investors. So you had the creative of things like sub-prime mortgages and derivatives. We also saw a reduction in bank regulation because the memories of the previous episode had faded. We also had financial structures in place, like pension funds, that were unsustainable in the new environment.

So we’re seeing new models appear. We’re creating ways to use the new technologies as the old technologies wind down.

When we look at fixed-investment spending, starting in the late 19th century the wave of investment grew rapidly. Then it slowed in the early 20th century and nearly stopped in the 1930s. But then there was a burst in the 1940 and 1950s, another slowing, and now we’re in a period where there is almost no growth. Labor hours and labor productivity showed similar shifts. Real interest rates also went through a similar increase and decline.

I don’t want to say this is a cycle. There is a very stochastic set of events that are occurring, but there are some similarities.

What does this have to do with Watson? The economy is beginning to open up opportunities for innovation. Demand for skills is shifting. It will likely be the case that in some job categories there are insufficient numbers of workers, which will cause assets to be created that reduce skill requirements.

This set of changes are in line with what we’ve seen with Watson capabilities.

How Will Technology Affect Employment?

Live-blogging from the IBM Watson University Symposium at Harvard Business School and MIT Sloan School of Management. Additional coverage is on the Smarter Planet Blog. .

Panel discussion: How Will Technology Affect Productivity and Employment?

Moderator: Erik Brynjolfsson – MIT Sloan, CDB

Panelists: David Autor – Economics, MIT; Irving Wladawsky-Berger, MIT, IBM Emeritus; Frank Levy, MIT

The Next Big ThingThis is one in a series of posts that explore people and technologies that are enabling small companies to innovate. The series is underwritten by IBM Midsize Business, but the content is entirely my own.
David Autor

David Autor

Autor: The idea that machines eliminate jobs is a fallacy. A century ago, 38% of the US population worked on farms. Today it’s 2%. But we don’t have 36% unemployment. We’re in a period where the scope of what can be done by machinery is expanding rapidly. If we look at 10 categories of occupation (shows a chart), there are three categories: Low-paid positions like food service work; mid-level, relatively low-paid positions like clerical jobs; and relatively highly paid jobs like professional, technical and managerial.

What we see is a decline in operative production jobs and clerical/administrative support jobs. The middle third are the jobs that are declining most quickly. Should we be worried about that? Probably, because it can lead to policies that are intended to preserve these positions instead of moving toward the jobs that are growing.

Employment Polarization, 1979-2009

Changes in Employment Share by Job Skill Tercile, 1993-2006

Wladawsky-Berger: About 80% of the job growth is in information-intensive service jobs. We’re living in a time of sustained high unemployment and this is concerning. Who will pick up the challenge of providing these jobs? People are looking to large businesses, but they are shedding these jobs along with everybody else. Others look to government, but in my experience government won’t do that.

Irving Wladawsky-Berger
Wladawsky-Berger

The top-down approaches aren’t going to work, but neither do I want to tell people that they’re on their own and that they have to take a more entrepreneurial approach. The world is becoming more entrepreneurial.

Levy: Everything we see here is colored by the recession, but this recession doesn’t have much to do with computers, it has to do with housing bubbles. The mid-skill decline is very real. Development is very uneven. Natural language processing has improved a lot, machine vision hasn’t and technologies like judgment and practical sense really haven’t gone anywhere.

People look at the Google truck and say it’s remarkable that it’s gone 2,000 miles without an accident. What really happened was that Google made detailed maps of the infrastructure it would be traveling. Without that infrastructure, this car doesn’t have the driving ability of a 16-year-old who just got a permit. So while this technology is promising, the Teamsters shouldn’t be protesting yet.

Brynjolfsson: Is there a future for the people who have those kinds of jobs?

Wladawsky-Berger: It has to be more entrepreneurial than top-down. The kinds of jobs that MIT and Stanford graduates have don’t scale very well. Small businesses don’t tend to create many jobs.

Can we apply technologies that have traditionally been available only at the high end and make them easier to use? Can there be new retail services, trades, sustainability-oriented businesses where these skills can be applied?

Frank Levy

Frank Levy

Levy: I can give you an example of one of our graduates who is now running a business making high-end stationery. It’s a good living, but it’s a small piece of the market.

Autor: in a lot of countries there are businesses that we might call entrepreneurial but which are really people just getting by. Most people want to be employed. When the economy booms, people tend to stop working for themselves and go to work for other people. Asking people to create new jobs is asking a lot.

What are the advantages of humans? Common sense, judgment, physical flexibility, understanding. It’s solving novel problems. Positions like cleaning driving actually require  those capabilities.

Wladawsky-Berger: Will global enterprises create these jobs? they’re becoming more distributed and moving a lot of tasks to the supply chain. A lot of people in the supply chain could be these mid-skilled people.

Autor: Cleaning restrooms requires a lot of flexibility, but it’s not entrepeneurial.

Erik Brynjolfsson

Erik Brynjolfsson

Brynjolfsson: So what skills should we be training people for?

Levy: One of the problems is you’re problem-solving by analogy. In the old world, where you were problem-solving by algorithm, it was pretty simple. Now you need to understand how things are similar and how you would use analogies to make decisions.

Autor: Germany has done a good job by training for needed skills and by reducing wages and increasing flexibility. It was painful, but when the shock hit, they were able to handle it better.

The US has a very good system for elite education. We don’t have a particularly good way to handle the people who can’t go to college. The traditional feeders like unions and apprenticeships aren’t as available today. The jobs that are emerging are those that require some level of post-high-school education. We have an incredibly big for-profit post-high-school education sector, but the only guarantee you have is that you’ll come out with a lot of debt. We’re squandering a lot of mid-level talent.

Levy: When you’re talking about a lack of training for people oer 30, you also have to look at where we are in training people under 18. That’s a problem in the pipeline.

Wladawsky-Berger: For these mid-skill jobs you need post-high-school education. I’m not saying a BA in English – in fact, that might be a bad idea – and I’ve been hoping that government agencies would decide that this is better than paying welfare and unemployment.

Autor: Health care will grow and there will be opportunities. If I were asked what people should study for, I’d say a health care worker. I don’t think we’re over-investing in college, I think we’re under-investing in other areas. The high school graduation rate is falling for males in the U.S. We ought to think carefully about how we would use that talent for a set of opportunities that’s appropriate. They need skills beyond the generic skills they find in high school. They need vocational education.

Levy: In the case of medical care, the whole issue of judgment is very important. When you’re talking about eliminating unnecessary procedures, there’s quite a bit of judgment involved. These are not problems that machines can address.

Autor: Look at an example of something that’s been automated out of value: Horses used to be our main form of locomotion but now they’re hardly needed. The difference between people and horses is that horses don’t accrue wealth from the internal combustion engine and we do. We’re getting wealthier collectively but not individually.

Audience question: I’m concerned with how we communicate these changes who aren’t economists so we can avoid reactions like what happened with stem cell research?

Wladawsky-Berger: The consensus of everything I’ve read is that when we transitioned from the agriculture to the industrial age, literacy went way up. High school became the ticket to the mid-skill, mid-pay class. In today’s world you need the next level of education: information-based literacy. You need to be comfortable working with information and you need social skills. This prepares you to be much more flexible in the new working environment. People who learn to use these tools can make a good living.

Audience question: It seems that our society fails people who need to change careers. Our unemployment system doesn’t encourage people to try new things for fear that they may lose benefits. Our education system also doesn’t foster skills training.

Autor: We have very little of what other countries call activation systems for people who have lost their jobs. We have a trade-adjustment system that does a terrible job. The problem is that the Republicans hate trade adjustment and blame everything on trade, and the unions hate re-skilling. So we have trade adjustment, which does very little.

Audience question: What about the possibility of trading off standard of living for other benefits, such as fewer work hours?

Autor: There’s a societal choice to trades off work for standards of living. You can work two days a week and make less money and some people might choose that. But we want to work less and have higher standards of living. We have more and more, but the rewards are concentrated in fewer hands. Having more rewards doesn’t solve the skill problem.

Wladawsky-Berger: I think we need more collaboration between the private and public sector. So the government does more to help people while they’re training for jobs, but the jobs are provided by the private sector.

How Will Computers Serve Us in 2020?

Live-blogging from the IBM Watson University Symposium at Harvard Business School and MIT Sloan School of Management. Additional coverage is on the Smarter Planet Blog. .

Panel discussion: What Can Technology Do Today, and in 2020?

Moderator: Andrew McAfee – MIT Sloan, CDB

Panelists: Alfred Spector, Google; Rodney Brooks, MIT, Heartland Robotics, David Ferrucci,IBM

Alfred Spector, Google
Alfred Spector, Google

Spector: We focused in computer science for many years on solving problems where accuracy and repeatability was critical. You can’t charge a credit card with 98% probability. We’re now focusing on problems where precision is less important. Google search results don’t have to be 100% accurate, so it can focus on a bigger problem set.

When I started in computer science, It was either a mathematical or an engineering discipline. What has changed is that the field is now highly empirical because of all of that data and learning from it. We would never have thought in the early days of AI how to get 4 million chess players to train a computer. You can do that today.

The Next Big ThingThis is one in a series of posts that explore people and technologies that are enabling small companies to innovate. The series is underwritten by IBM Midsize Business, but the content is entirely my own.

Brooks: Here at MIT, all students take machine learning because it’s that important.

McAfee: Was there a turning point when you decided the time was right to take these empirical approaches?

Brooks: It was in the 90s. The Web gave us the data sets.

Ferrucci: Watson was learning over heuristic information. Plowing through all those possibilities through sheer trial and error was too big. You have to combine inductive and deductive reasoning.

Brooks: It’s easy to get a plane to fly from Boston to Los Angeles. What’s hard is to get a robot to reach into my pocket and retrieve my keys.

McAfee: Why does the physical world present such challenges?

Brooks: In engineering, you have to set up control loops and you can’t afford for them to be unstable. Once a plane is in the air, the boundaries of differential equations don’t change that much. But when reaching into my pocket, the boundaries are changing every few milliseconds.

McAfee: The things that 2-year-old humans can do machines find very difficult, and the things that computers can do humans find very difficult.

Rodney Brooks, MIT

Rodney Brooks, MIT

Brooks: One thing we have to solve is the the object recognition capabilities of a two-year-old child. A child knows what a pen or a glass of water is. There is progress here, but it’s mainly in narrow sub-fields. Google cars are an example of that. They understand enough of road conditions that they can drive pretty well.

Spector: We’re looking to attack everything that breaks down barriers to communication. Example: With Google Translate, we eventually want to get to every language.

Another is how to infer descriptions from items that lack them. How do you infer a description from an image? We’re at the point where if you ask for pictures of the Eiffel Tower, we’re pretty good at delivering that.

A third thing is to make sure that information is available always from every corpus, whether it’s your personal information, information in books or information that’s on the Web. We want to break down those barriers while also preserving property rights. How many times have you searched for something and you can’t find it? I turns out it’s in a place where you weren’t looking. When you combine that with instantaneity of access, you can be on the street and communicate with someone standing next to you in the right language and the right context. You can go to a new city where you’ve never been before and enjoy that city no matter where it is.

McAfee: You think in five years I’ll be able to go to Croatia and interact comfortably with the locals?

Spector: Yes.

Brooks: We think manufacturing is disappearing from the US, but in reality there is still $2 trillion in manufacturing in the US. What we’ve done is go after the high end. We have to find things to manufacture that the Chinese can’t. What this has led to is manufacturing jobs getting higher tech. If we can build robotic tools that help people, we can get incredible productivity. The PC didn’t get rid of office workers did; it made them do things differently. We have to do that with robots.

We can take jobs back from China but they won’t be the same jobs. That doesn’t mean people have to be engineers to work. Instead of a factory worker doing a repetitive task, he can supervise a team of robots doing repetitive tasks.

My favorite example is automobiles. We’ve made them incredibly sophisticated but ordinary people can still drive.

Spector: It’s machines and humans working together to build things we couldn’t build separately. At Google, we learn how to spell from the spelling mistakes of our users.

Ferrucci: This notion that the collaboration between the health care team, the patient and the computer can result in a more effective diagnostic system as well as one that produces more options. Everyone is well informed about the problems, the possibilities and why. I think we’re capable of doing that today much better than we did in the past. This involves exploiting the knowledge that humans use to communicate with each other already. This gets you as a patient more involved in making better decisions faster. It’s collaborating better with the experts.

McAfee: Don’t we need to shrink the caregiver team to improve the productivity of the system?

Ferrucci: The way you make the system more productive is to make people healthier. Does that involve a smaller team? I don’t know, but I do know you get there by focusing on the right thing, which is the health of the patient.

Andrew McAfee, MIT Sloan

Andrew McAfee, MIT Sloan

McAfee: If you could wave a wand and get either much faster computers, much bigger body of data or a bunch more Ph.D.’s on your team, which would you want?

Brooks: Robotics isn’t limited by the speed of computers. We’ve got plenty of data, although maybe not the right data. Smart Ph.D.’s are good, but you’ve got to orient them in the right direction. The IBM Watson team changed the culture to direct a group of Ph.D.s the right way. I think we’d be better off if universities were smaller and did more basic research that companies like IBM would never do.

Spector: When many of us in industry go to the universities, we’ve often surprised that the research isn’t bolder. Perhaps that has to do with faculty reward issues. We envision that there’s going to be need for vastly more computation. I’m sure Google data centers will continue to grow. If you stay anywhere near Moore’s law, these numbers will become gigantic. The issues will relate to efficiency: Using the minimum amount of power and delivering maximum sustainability.

With respect to people, there’s a tremendous amount of innovation that needs to be done. Deep learning is a way to iteratively learn more from the results of what you’ve already learned. Language processing is a way to do that. We learn from the results of what we do. Finally, data is going to continue to grow. We bought a company with a product called Freebase where people are creating data by putting semantic variables together. Just learning the road conditions in New York from what commuters and telling us is crowdsourced data, and that’s enormously useful.

David Ferrucci, IBM Research

David Ferrucci, IBM Research

Ferrucci: We need all three, but in order, it’s researchers, data, machines. Parallel is processing is important, but it’s less important than smart people.

McAfee: Do computers ultimately threaten us?

Brooks: The machines are going to get better, but for the foreseeable future we’ll evolve faster. There’s a lot of work going on in the area of putting machines into the bodies of people. I think we’re going to be merging and coupling machines to our bodies. A hundred years from now? Who the hell knows?

Spector: There will be more instantaneity, faster information. We can embrace that, like we did central heating, or reject it. I think we’re on a mostly positive track.

Audience question: What’s the next grand challenge?

Ferrucci: I think the more important thing is to continue to pursue projects that further the cause of human-computer cooperation. We tend to go off after new projects that require entirely different architectures, and that hurts us. I’d rather we focus on extending and generalizing architectures we’ve established and focus on applying it to new problems.

Brooks: I’d like to see us focus on the four big problems we need to solve.

  • Visual object recognition of a 2-year-old
  • The spoken language capabilities of a four-year-old
  • The manual dexterity of a six-year-old. Tying shoelaces is a huge machine problem
  • The social understanding of an eight-year-old child.

David Ferrucci on Building the World’s Smartest Computer

Live blogging Dr. David Ferrucci’s address to the IBM Watson University Symposium at Harvard Business School and MIT Sloan School of Management. Ferrucci was director of the IBM Watson project.

Additional coverage is on the Smarter Planet Blog. .

Ferrucci tells a story about his daughter’s quote: “Interesting things are boring.” Because that was her frame of reference. Interesting things involve a lot of complexity that makes them boring (to people who aren’t explicitly interested in them).

We’re trying to move from the age of moving bits to the age of understanding their meaning. Meaning is ultimately subjective and we are the subjects. We see a calculator with dice on top and we infer it has something to do with calculating odds. We bring a huge wealth of background knowledge to interpreting what an image means.

The Next Big ThingThis is one in a series of posts that explore people and technologies that are enabling small companies to innovate. The series is underwritten by IBM Midsize Business, but the content is entirely my own.

Don’t expect AI systems to originate meaning, but expect them to infer meaning. We have to get the AI systems to make the right assignments of meaning but we can’t expect them to originate meaning.

You can look at context from a chronology or magnitude or causation perspective. If you want computers to detect human meanings, it takes advanced technology.

Jeopardy was an interesting challenge. The end goal was to get smarter about processing a language that humans use to detect intended meanings. Watson and Jeopardy were milestones in that direction.

You couldn’t play Jeopardy by having thousands of FAQs and linking to their answers. Example: “The first person mentioned by name in  ‘The Man in the Iron Mask’ is this hero of a previous book by the same author.” The answer is D’Artagnan. If you’re going to buzz in on that question, you’d better have an accurate probability that your answer is correct. You have to look at all the evidence supporting that answer and analyze it so that that probability gets better and better.


Example: “This actor, Audrey’s husband from 1954 to 1968, directed her as Rima the bird girl in ‘Green Mansions.’” You need to parse what “direct” means: to guide, to lead, to direct? What is “Green Mansions?” Watson would produce multiple syntactic assignments because there was no guarantee of approaching that problem correctly. You need to parse all of these assignments in parallel to see which are most likely.

In a random sample of 20,000 past Jeopardy questions we found 2,500 distinct types. The most frequent occurred less than 3% of the time. They didn’t help us map to answer, but it did help us identify different ways of understanding how questions are parsed.

Plausible inference varies by context. Example: In the category of Lincoln Blogs: “Treausre secy Chase just submitted this for the third time. Guess what, pal? This time I’m accepting it.” Answer is “resignation.” Sixth-grade class came up with a different answer: “Friend request.”

“Vessels sink.” “Sink” can refer to submerged but you can also sink a cue ball.

We calculated the winning player on Jeopardy gets about 50% of the answers. Those that they got a chance to answer they answered correctly about 85% of the time. Ken Jennings was able to answer 62% of the board, which was phenomenal.

Fundamental bets we made:

  • Large hand-crafted models are too limited.
  • Intelligence from the capability oif many: We had to come up with many hypotheses and algorithms to figure out how to attack the problem. We had to combine those to balance their application.
  • Massive parallelism was a key enabler: We had to pusue many competing independent hypotheses over large amounts of data.

The notion of intelligence from the capability of many enabled us to get a lot of different components to interoperate with each other. We had to build many different ways to combine them.

Watson Architecture

Watson takes many possible alternatives or candidate answers. For each of those hypotheses it gathers a large amount of evidence. So it may take 100 interpretations and gather 100 facts for each, or 10,000 factors. We then run them through filters to calculate a probability of each answer, and if it’s above a certain threshold, like 50%, then we buzz in.

Then we also have to balance in the competition. If Watson is way ahead, it’s less likely to buzz in on a lower probability. If it’s way behind, it gets more aggressive.

The goal of all researchers was can they drive the end-to-end system performance? We changed the cultural incentives. We all go into one room and everyone focused on natural language processing, information retrieval, knowledge representation and more. We produced more than 8,000 documents.

Some early answers:

Decades before Lincoln, Daniel Webster spoke of government “made for”, “made by” & answerable to them.” Watson: “No One.”

“Give a Brit a tinnkle when you get into town and you’ve done this.” Watson: “Urinate”

This system is complex in ways that no one imagined. We did end-to-end integration almost every two weeks, then drove into data to determine which factors were contributing to right and wrong answers.

We got to 87% to 90% precision, which was good enough to compete. We went into the final game with Ken Jennings. Our analytics told us we had about a 74% chance of winning.

It took about two hours to answer one question on a single 2.6Ghz CPU. We used about 15TB of RAM and 2,000 parallel cores.

I fought hard to get an answer panel on TV so people could see Watson computing possibilities. This got people thinking about what was going on behind the scenes.

An answer doesn’t really matter if you can’t back it up with evidence that a human can understand. When we apply this to health care or finance, you need to provide the evidence of why you think this is an important answer, but you have to do it in a way that people can understand. The computer isn’t giving answers but providing evidence.

Applications in health care: You’re finding hypotheses that weren’t clearly evident and gathering information that supports evidence. You can imaging information comine from patient data, symptoms, office visits, and background databases, computing these profiles, providing these profiles to the medical teams and helping them to see how the evidence supports the hypothesis.

What do people intend when they use words: “Geeshe, she was only 10 when she took ohome an Oscar in 1974. She’s 40 now.” Watson’s confidence was low. It knew that Tatum O’Neal won an Oscar at age 10, but it doesn’t understand “take home.” So we asked people to answer that question so that Watson could understand what the term meant.

It’s not enough to assign semantics to a sentence. You want to interact with people who can help you understand meaning.

Question: How long until Watson can program itself?

As Watson is training on prior questions and answers, it’s balancing those inputs and learning how to weight the possibilities. Different problems require different balancing. I can’t give you a short answer because what do you mean by programming yourself? Short answer is I don’t know.

Question: It sounds like you ran out of gas at some point in comparing Watson’s performance to humans. Is there some limit?

It does slow down. At some point, there are things that are incredibly hard for a computer to do. Can we push that line upward? I think we can, but for Jeopardy there was only so far we needed to push it. The game is also evolving. We learned that data prior to 2003 was easier for the computer to understand. After we learned that, we focused only on data post-2003.

Question: What areas are this technology more appropriate for?

We’ve only focused on health care so far. It’s harder for the machine to understand different domains. In health care, you don’t have as much training data and the input is not just a small graph. It’s a huge graph of different factors and relationships. In health care we had to tackle the multi-dimensional input problem. Because of the limited ontology in that domain, it’s somewhat easier to tackle health care than some other areas.

Facebook Tips for Midsize Businesses

With Facebook presenting a tempting target of 800 million potential customers, small businesses are flocking to social network as a fast and easy way to generate business. But many SMB’s don’t take full advantage of the Facebook platform because they’re intimidated by the learning curve and the technical knowledge that Facebook applications demand.

Against the GrainThis is one in a series of posts that explore people and technologies that are enabling small companies to innovate. The series is underwritten by IBM Midsize Business, but the content is entirely my own.

That doesn’t have to be the case, says David Brody, Managing Partner at North Social, a software as a service company that specializes in serving small and medium businesses (SMBs) with a suite of Facebook apps that they can quickly integrate into their Facebook presence. I talked to Brody about tips for SMBs that want to optimize their Facebook presence.

It’s not about the likes. Research has shown that few people who “like” a Facebook page ever return to it. That means that getting a like is a means to an end, but not a goal.

“This is a test-measure-modify world,” Brody says. In other words, experiment with different offers and incentives to build fans and then measure those that deliver engagement and return visits. Remember, this isn’t direct mail, and your cost of trying something new is basically zero. On the flipside, simply getting someone to click a button is not enough. “‘Excite, Educate, Motivate’ has replaced ‘Awareness, Trial, Purchase,'” Brody says.

Match the offer to the business. Those ubiquitous iPad giveaways may not be doing much more than delivering business to Apple. Brody tells of one business owner in Atlanta whose offer of a flat-screen TV as contest prize yielded only 60 new likes. Maybe the problem was that the company is in the heating/ventilation/air conditioning business. An offer of offer of free or discounted air conditioning equipment might have played pretty well in Atlanta during the summer.

Moosejaw Mountaineering on FacebookCapture and communicate. Facebook pages and apps offer easy ways to collect e-mail addresses. This creates a permission-based vehicle to continue a conversation. E-mail and news feeds can be used to deliver an ongoing stream of information that reminds people of who you are. Clif Bar asks first-time visitors to like its page in order to sign up for a newsletter, while Moosejaw Mountaineering touts giveaways, rewards points and tips..

This doesn’t mean e-mail is obsolete, but with inboxes mail clogged and people spending an hour a day on Facebook, the newsfeed has become an attractive alternative channel.

Use Facebook for sampling. Conventional wisdom holds that product samples need to be distributed on the street or unsolicited to the mail. It turns out Facebook can be an even better channel. One North Social customer that makes pretzels distributed 10,000 samples in less than 24 hours by sending them to people who liked its page. People who have opted in for a sample are more likely to be buyers than passersby in a supermarket. Audience quality more than compensates for the higher cost of distribution.

Animal Print ShopBe creative with promotions. You don’t have to incur manufacturing or mailing costs to distribute incentives with value. Think of a digital asset you can create that has zero marginal expense. Dentoola consulting gives away reports on how to apply social media in the dentistry profession. The Animal Print Shop gives away desktop wallpaper. You can exchange a like for a customized press release at Hunter PR.

Having healthy teeth and a great-looking smile takes some effort, but the results are well worth it. And having a dentist on your side every step of the way is an important part of that journey. Visit San Diego cosmetic dentist for more information.

Buy ads against pages of competitors or similar products. The great appeal of Facebook ads is their narrow targeting. Davids can ride on the backs of Goliaths by targeting ads to fans of much bigger brands. “If your product is candy, buy ads on the Skittles page,” Brody says. It’s the fastest way to find candy lovers online.

Keep the message simple and change it often. Don’t flatter yourself by thinking people will spend a minute on your page trying to figure out your message or offer. “Facebook is the equivalent of an out-of-home billboard,” Brody says. “You only have a few seconds to make an impression. Keep your message to a few words and make it compelling.” Remember the earlier point: You can always change the offer and test something new.

Get people involved. Brody is no fan of the automated tools that enable page owners to auto-post content across multiple social platforms. “No one wants to be friends with a robot,” he says. “Motivate your alpha evangelists.” Games, quizzes and giveaways work well, particularly if they challenge the audience to be creative.

One midsize business that Brody thinks does a lot of things well on Facebook is footwear maker Sanuk. From its provocative “like” message to its offbeat video to an online store that juxtaposes user comments with product shots, it provokes conversation at every turn. North Social’s examples page has plenty more.